Fears of all-out ethnic war rise in Sudan’s Darfur: Analysis

The next major battle in Sudan’s civil war between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) could escalate into a full-blown ethnic conflict, according to residents, experts, and aid groups. The Joint Protection Forces (JPF), composed of mostly non-Arab armed groups, have deployed reinforcements to protect civilians from a potential attack by the RSF. The RSF, largely made up of fighters from Arab tribes, has already defeated the Sudanese army in four out of five states in Darfur, resulting in civilian deaths, sexual violence against women, and looting. If the RSF captures North Darfur, residents and monitors fear that a similar fate awaits the region. There is no official statement from the RSF regarding whether they plan to attack the army. The JPF, a neutral body comprised of former Darfur rebel groups tasked with security after the UN-African Union peacekeeping force left, pledged to protect civilians and major markets despite their limited capabilities.

The JPF was established as part of the Juba Peace Agreement signed in October 2020, which allowed non-Arab rebel groups to return from exile in Libya and play a role in governing Darfur. However, tension between the army, RSF, and the rebel groups escalated into a full-fledged civil war in April 2023. The leaders of the rebel groups, Gibril Ibrahim and Minni Minawi, eventually declared their support for the army. Critics argue that these leaders are sacrificing the positive image of the JPF and their movements to protect their narrow economic interests by aligning with the army. Both leaders are from the Zaghawa tribe, whose fighters make up a significant portion of the JPF. Since their return to Darfur, the rebel groups have been actively recruiting young Zaghawa and Fur men, including from the Zamzam IDP camp. While this provides more defenders for the camps, it also raises concerns that the camps could become targets in the conflict.

The situation in North Darfur is tense, with residents fearing an imminent attack by the RSF. However, the RSF spokesperson denies any plans for a military operation. Recent events, such as the killing of 1,300 non-Arab Masalit civilians in an IDP camp in West Darfur, have raised concerns that similar atrocities could occur in North Darfur. Experts warn that a military fight could spiral into ethnic violence and result in atrocities. The potential conflict may also have repercussions in Chad, where President Mahamat Deby, who is Zaghawa, may face pressure to defend his kin if they are attacked in Sudan. For now, civilians in North Darfur hope to avoid full-scale war, but fear remains.

Analysis:
The article cites sources such as residents, experts, and aid groups to discuss the potential for ethnic violence in North Darfur. It provides information about the background of the conflict, including the formation of the JPF and the role of various rebel groups. The article also mentions specific incidents of violence perpetrated by the RSF. However, it is important to note the lack of on-the-ground reporting and reliance on anonymous sources. The article could benefit from including more diverse perspectives and alternative viewpoints.

The credibility of the sources is difficult to evaluate due to the lack of specific credentials provided. While some sources are identified as journalists or spokespersons, others are anonymous or affiliated with non-governmental organizations. This raises questions about their potential biases or vested interests, especially considering the complex political landscape and competing factions involved in the conflict.

The article presents facts about the conflict in Darfur, including the RSF’s victories and its violent actions against civilians. However, it does not provide a balanced perspective on the motivations or justifications of all parties involved. There is a potential bias towards framing the RSF as the aggressor and the rebel groups aligned with the army as self-interested actors. The article could benefit from additional context and analysis of the political dynamics and historical factors driving the conflict.

The article’s impact and potential for misinformation are to some extent influenced by the political landscape and the prevalence of fake news. The intense political divisions and historical grievances in Sudan make it difficult to discern objective truths. The article’s reliance on anonymous sources and the lack of comprehensive analysis may contribute to a nuanced understanding of the conflict. The prevalence of fake news can also complicate the public’s perception of the information presented. People’s existing biases and trust in certain sources may influence their interpretation and acceptance of the article’s claims.

Overall, while the article provides valuable insights into the potential for ethnic violence in North Darfur, its reliability is limited by its lack of comprehensive analysis, reliance on anonymous sources, and potential biases. A more nuanced understanding of the conflict would require a broader range of perspectives and a thorough examination of the political dynamics and historical context. Additionally, efforts to combat fake news and promote critical media literacy are crucial to help the public navigate complex and sensitive issues such as conflicts in Sudan.
Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/22/fears-of-all-out-ethnic-war-in-rise-in-sudans-darfur