Analysis: Can the US and Israel stop the Houthis from seizing more ships?: Analysis

Houthi Rebels Seize Cargo Ship in Red Sea
On Sunday, Houthi fighters hijacked a cargo ship in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen.

The Galaxy Leader car carrier, measuring 189 meters in length, was en route from Turkey to India when it was intercepted by small fast boats. Uniformed, armed individuals boarded the vessel, and others descended from a helicopter to the deck. The crew was then instructed to change course and head towards the Yemeni port of Hodeida.

The ship in question is a civilian vessel, sailing between neutral countries. Although no shots were fired, this incident has the potential to escalate the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine. In a worst-case scenario, it could draw the United States and Iran into direct involvement in the war.

Houthi spokesman Yahya Sare’e confirmed that the ship was seized for being Israeli-owned, aligning with a previous announcement from the group that they would target any Israeli vessel in the Red Sea. However, Israel denies any connection to the vessel, despite shipping databases indicating it is owned by one of Israel’s wealthiest individuals.

The Red Sea is mostly wider than 200km, except for the narrow Bab al-Mandeb passage, only 20km wide, between the Yemeni island of Mayyun and the coast of Djibouti and Eritrea. More than 17,000 ships traverse the straits annually, approximately 50 ships per day.

Many of these ships, including the Galaxy Leader, operate under a “flag of convenience” system. In this case, the vessel is registered under the flag of the Bahamas, and it is operated by a Japanese company. The ship’s ownership and operating company are less relevant in the shipping industry than the flag under which it sails and its registration country.

Given the vulnerability of potentially “Israel-linked” ships, measures must be taken to prevent further hijackings. Three options are available: sending armed ships to accompany commercial traffic, diminishing the Houthi offensive capacity at sea, or convincing them to refrain from attacking.

Saudi Arabia and Egypt have strong navies, bordering the Red Sea, but they are unlikely to take action. Saudi Arabia is in an uneasy truce with the Houthis and wishes to avoid disturbing it, while Egypt aims to maintain neutrality. Israel lacks the capacity to spare ships for this task.

The only viable option to counter the Houthi threat would be the United States Navy. The US has recently deployed military assets to the Middle East, including two carrier strike groups (CSGs). Each CSG consists of an aircraft carrier, guided missile cruisers, destroyers, and various auxiliaries. The CSG 12 monitors the wider area of Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, while the CSG 2 focuses on Iran.

The US Navy also includes individual ships monitoring Houthi missile launches, such as the USS Carney, which previously intercepted Houthi missiles and drones targeting Israel.

However, American options are limited. Ships dedicated to escorting commercial shipping are concentrated around the amphibious carrier USS Bataan, currently located just south of Suez. Moving this ship south would weaken the US’s ability to respond to any escalation around Gaza.

Another option would be for the US to directly target the Houthis, but this could lead to a major escalation. Alternatively, the US could request Israel to launch long-range missile attacks on Houthi ports, although this move also carries risks.

Therefore, the best course of action may be de-escalation, with Iran playing a crucial role. If the Houthi seizure of the Galaxy Leader was an independent action, the US could engage in discreet diplomacy to persuade Iran to control its proxy and prevent further hijackings at sea.

However, all parties involved must exercise restraint for this approach to succeed. The stakes are high, as another hijacking could lead to a broader involvement of countries in an already devastating conflict, potentially pushing it to the point of no return.
Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/20/analysis-can-the-us-and-israel-stop-the-houthis-from-seizing-more-ships