Analysis of Biden-Xi Meeting at APEC Summit: Pursuing Agreement Amidst Tensions

President Biden’s meeting with President Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco aims to mitigate escalating competition between the two nations and prevent it from escalating into conflict. While there have been hints of potential agreements, officials are cautious in managing expectations.

Fentanyl Regulation Agreement:

• Likelihood: Possible, but history suggests caution.
• Explanation: There are indications that an agreement on regulating components of fentanyl, a drug contributing to the U.S. opioid epidemic, might be reached. However, previous similar commitments by China raise questions about the sustainability and effectiveness of such measures.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Programs and Nuclear Command Control:

• Likelihood: Uncertain.
• Explanation: Both leaders may announce a forum to discuss keeping AI programs away from nuclear command and control. This occurs as the U.S. denies China advanced chips necessary for AI development. The complex interplay of technology and security concerns makes the likelihood of a meaningful agreement uncertain.

Military-to-Military Communications:

• Likelihood: Possible.
• Explanation: Discussions about resuming military-to-military communications, severed by China after Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit in 2022, are on the table. While resumption is possible, the extent and effectiveness of these communications remain to be seen.

Thorny Issues:

• Issues Raised: Wars in Ukraine and Gaza, Taiwan’s upcoming election.
• Likelihood of Resolution: Low.
• Explanation: President Biden is expected to raise sensitive issues during the meeting. However, historical tensions and China’s claims on Taiwan make significant breakthroughs unlikely.

Summit Expectations:

• Expectations: Administration officials downplay concrete commitments.
• Explanation: The meeting is characterized by low expectations for substantive agreements. The absence of a joint statement and the emphasis on individual accounts indicate a tempered outlook.

Ceremonial Nature of the Meeting:

Highly Choreographed: Diplomatic dance designed to defuse tensions.

Explanation: The meticulous planning, from seating arrangements to handshakes, underscores the sensitivity of the meeting and the desire to manage perceptions on both sides.

Low Expectations for Substantive Agreements:

• Expectations: Minimal, with one concrete agreement hinted.
• Explanation: The anticipated agreement on military-to-military communications is modest in scope. The lack of substantial expectations reflects the current state of U.S.-China relations.

In summary, while there are indications of potential agreements, the historical context and the complex nature of the issues suggest a cautious assessment of the likelihood and impact of concrete outcomes from the Biden-Xi meeting at the APEC Summit.

Source: nytimes

Analysis by The Daily Story.