Experts Predict Challenging and Violent Winter for Ukrainian and Russian Soldiers : Analysis

Experts predict that the conflict in Ukraine will continue throughout the winter, resulting in a prolonged stalemate. Both sides are expected to engage in offensives and counteroffensives without achieving any significant breakthroughs. Retired colonel Seth Krummrich, now vice president at Global Guardian, a security consultancy, believes that the ground freezing during winter will lead to desperate moves from the Russian side, potentially resulting in more casualties. Ukraine’s armed forces have already estimated 6,260 Russian deaths in just one week due to relentless Russian attacks in the east.

According to Konstantinos Grivas, a professor at the Hellenic Army Academy, the war in Ukraine lacks a high strategy, making it a war on autopilot. Both sides have failed to gain a technological or tactical advantage, as defensive measures like minefields and trenches have neutralized the capabilities of mechanized and airborne forces. The strategies of both Russia and Ukraine have been parried, with Russia’s initial hope of a quick collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces failing. Russia resorted to missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and targeted power stations and port infrastructure. In response, Ukraine’s Western allies provided support, including air defense systems and emergency generators, to keep Ukraine’s power flowing. Ukraine has also attempted offensive strategies, striking deep into the Russian rear and attacking Russian missile manufacturing sites and Moscow with drones, but these efforts have not been successful.

Ukraine has recently sought F-16 fighter planes from NATO members, but their deployment is unlikely to have a significant impact on the stalemate. Some experts believe that Ukraine’s request for Western help is an attempt to maintain the perception of support and avoid negotiating with Russia. In response to sanctions imposed by Ukraine’s allies, Russia has found alternate markets for its exports and continues to manufacture weapons and acquire military technology from pariah states. Observers suggest that Russia’s ability to maintain its stockpiles and utilize its reserves of manpower gives it an advantage in a protracted war of attrition. However, there are reports indicating a growing number of Russian soldiers who want to go home.

While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ruled out negotiations while Russian forces remain on Ukrainian soil, Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed openness to peace talks with Ukraine. Some experts believe that both sides have a secret desire to find a way out of the conflict and initiate negotiations. However, the current will to fight and potential political considerations, such as the upcoming US presidential election and the stance of the Western alliance, may prevent peace talks from happening this winter.

The article does not provide specific sources for the experts’ predictions and statements, making it difficult to assess their credibility. Additionally, the article does not provide a comprehensive analysis of the political landscape in Ukraine and Russia, potential biases can be present in the presentation of facts. The focus on military strategies and casualties in the conflict may contribute to a nuanced understanding of the broader political, economic, and humanitarian aspects of the conflict. The prevalence of fake news and political biases in the media can influence public perception, particularly when conflicting reports and opinions are presented without sufficient context and reliable sourcing.

Source: Aljazeera news: A hard, bloody winter awaits Ukrainian and Russian soldiers, say experts